El Bladerunner es una estrategia de negociación de la acción de precio de forex que usa acción de precio pura para encontrar entradas. Usamos candelabros, puntos de pivote, números redondos y buenos y antiguos niveles de soporte y resistencia cuando intercambiamos esta estrategia. No son necesarios indicadores fuera de gráfico (los que aparecen debajo de la ventana del gráfico en su propia ventana, por ejemplo, RSI, estocásticos, MACD, etc.) son necesarios, pero puede incluir su favorito si lo encuentra útil o si se siente más cómodo con una confirmación adicional. Algunas personas podrían desear incorporar los niveles de Fibonacci y eso también está bien. El único indicador que sí uso con esta estrategia es un indicador en el gráfico, el 20 EMA. Una alternativa es utilizar la línea media de las 20 bandas estándar de Bollinger. Cualquiera de los dos funciona bien, de hecho, puede utilizar ambos para intercambiarlos como una estrategia de EMA de la banda de Bollinger. Los ejemplos aquí utilizarán los 20 EMA. Esta configuración se puede intercambiar en cualquier par. También se puede comercializar en cualquier período de tiempo, pero los ejemplos a continuación son de gráficos de 5 minutos. Se pueden comercializar en casi cualquier momento del día, pero obviamente algunas veces son más confiables que otras. Por ejemplo, la primera parte de la sesión asiática puede proporcionar un descanso decente y volver a realizar una prueba dando una entrada, mientras que la sesión de la tarde asiática puede ser muy lenta. Luego, cuando Londres abra el precio, puede ser demasiado errático y volátil como para dar entradas razonables para cualquier estrategia. Después, una vez que haya pasado la ola inicial de anuncios de noticias y el precio se haya resuelto, una vez más puede obtener una entrada confiable o dos. Por lo tanto, tendrá que ajustar esta estrategia a los momentos en que pueda comerciarla. La estrategia se llama Bladerunner porque la 20 EMA actúa como un precio divisorio. Si el precio está por encima de la EMA, y respetándolo, y vuelve a probar la EMA, es probable que se rechace al lado largo. Y si el precio está por debajo de la EMA, y respetándolo, y vuelve a probar la EMA, es probable que se rechace al lado corto. Algunos ejemplos a continuación pueden ayudar a aclarar:
Si el precio está por debajo de los 20 EMA, nuestro sesgo es corto y estaríamos buscando precios para subir y golpear a los 20 EMA, rechazar y luego bajar.Sin embargo, si el precio atraviesa los 20 EMA y cierra de manera convincente por encima de él, consideramos que el precio ha cambiado de polaridad y ahora nuestro sesgo cambia a largo. (Esto se puede ver a la derecha de la imagen de arriba). De ahora en adelante, estaríamos buscando precios para bajar y alcanzar los 20 EMA, rechazarlos y luego subir. Un ejemplo de una transacción definitiva y una posible pérdida:
Los parámetros de entrada esenciales para esta configuración son:
El precio debe salir de la consolidación o un rango antes de la entrada, es decir, debe ser una tendencia
El precio debe volver a probar los 20 EMA con éxito
The concept of Overlapping Fibonacci in forex trading is one that most traders come to after having used Fibonacci for some time. Typically, they will be using Fibonacci retracements or extensions looking for a confluence of a Fibonacci level with other signals such as support and resistance, pivots etc. The idea of overlapping Fibonacci is likely to be an exciting discovery. Why?
Because very often that is all you need in order to trade: two strong Fibonacci levels at an area of known support and resistance for example, will very likely yield some kind of usable reaction. Many traders find the simplicity of this strategy appealing, and use nothing else in their trading.As usual, giving chart examples will probably be the best way to illustrate the concept.
Take any chart with a reasonable run up or down in price, combined with several moderate retracements along the way, and just start drawing Fibonacci on that chart:The above example shows two sets of Fibonacci drawn in a strong downtrend. The yellow Fibonacci lines are a result of drawing from the high at the top left of the chart and down to the swing low indicated by the first white circle. The blue Fibonacci lines are a result of drawing fibs from a lower swing high (that coincidentally formed a double top) to the same swing low as that of the yellow Fibonacci.
You can see two possible entries at the confluence of the yellow Fibonacci 38% retracement level, combined with the blue Fibonacci retracement level of 79%.The above chart shows a similar situation in an uptrend. Again, the white circle indicates an opportunity to enter on a bullish engulfing candle pattern at the confluence of the 79% and 38% retracement levels.
Note that the confluence can consist of any of the Fibonacci retracement levels, from 38% to 50% to 62% to 79%.There is also the opportunity to take trades based on confluences that occur at Fibonacci extension levels, and the process for arriving at those confluence identifications is the same: on any chart draw Fibonacci lines (with extension levels enabled) and look for levels that overlap.
The Daily Fibonacci Pivot Strategy uses standard Fibonacci retracements in confluence with the daily pivot levels in order to get trade entries. My preferred parameters are the 38% or 50% Fibonacci levels in confluence with the daily central pivot. The examples following show entries at the 38%, 50% and 62% Fibonacci retracement levels in confluence with the daily central pivot.As with all free forex strategies, there are many possible interpretations and variations. My particular take on this strategy is as follows:
Look for an entry on any currency pair where the average true range for the last five day period has been exceeded in the previous day’s trading session
At the start of the current trading session draw fibs:
From the previous days low to high, if price is currently above the current day’s central pivot
From the previous day’s high to low, if price is currently below the current day’s central pivot
Look for a confluence of Fibonacci retracement levels with the daily central pivot
If price retraces to the confluence identified, either enter at market or wait for a confirmatory candle signal to occur at the confluence before entry.
Obviously, it is more risky to enter before getting the confirmatory signal, but such an approach gives a greater possible reward to risk ratio.
Let’s have a look at a few charts to see how this works.
The first chart shows a long entry at the confluence of the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the daily central pivot:
It was possible to enter either way here, either by buying at the first touch of that level, or waiting for the morning star candle formation to form. Both entries would have given a possible target at the 127% Fibonacci extension level, which was easily reached.The suggested stop loss for these trades is behind the Fibonacci level one level away from where you take the trade. In this case it would amount to the 50% retracement level, with a few pips extra thrown in for buffering.
The next trade shows the reverse setup of the previous trade, with a sell occurring at the confluence of the 38% retracement and the daily central pivot:This was a nice set up given the big drop that occurred in the previous trading session. That drop signified a change in sentiment which would have added weight to the decision to sell.
Another example, again, a sell after a long run down the day before:This time the sell occurs at the 50% retracement level, although it is not in perfect confluence with the daily central pivot. Still, a nice evening star pattern occurred with both the daily central pivot and the 50% retracement level being respected prior to entry,
The last example shows a confluence of the central pivot with the 62% retracement level, plus old lows at the left of the chart:This is an example of the fact that any pivot level can be used in confluence with the daily central pivot. In this case price retraced to once more retest the entry-level on the next day, but you should have had profit taken out of the trade by then, if not having exited at full profit.
As always with any new strategy, and in particular free forex strategies, remember to fully back test and live test in a demo account before going live with this particular play, if you decide it is a good fit for you.
Trading an obvious trend is a lot more straightforward than trading when price is range bound, or appearing to move sideways. Many traders actually pass on the possibility of trading at all in a range bound market, standing aside until price once more takes on a definite trend. There are however strategies for coping with this much more restricted range of price movement. This free strategy is offered as one such approach.The Bolly Band Bounce is based on the observed behaviour of price where the Bollinger bands form a kind of limit for short-term price movement. In this respect Bollinger bands are well named, in that they almost exhibit the elasticity characteristics of rubber bands. Price will approach an outer band, encounter resistance and snap back towards the opposite band.One way to make use of this behaviour is to trade the bounces at the outer bands. This is not very effective in a sharply trending market, but when the market is in a range it can be very effective indeed for short-term scalps.The first thing you must do when looking to trade this strategy is to determine that price is indeed in a range. There are many ways to do this but with Bollinger bands I find the simplest is to check if price is staying on one side or the other of the mid-band. If so, and price is making consistently lower lows then price is trending down. And the opposite of course applies for an uptrend: if price is staying above the mid-band and making consistently higher highs then we are in an uptrend.The following illustration shows price in a down trend at the left of the screen turning into a ranging market at the right:The signal for a possible turn from trending market to ranging market is shown circled at the bottom of the chart: a tweezer bottom candlestick pattern has formed. If this has occurred in confluence with other factors such as support/resistance, round number, significant pivot level or Fibonacci retracement level, the signal is stronger. It may have been possible to take a trade at this level although personally I would prefer to wait for confirmation that price is indeed ranging by a turn at the opposite band. This is what we see in the second illustration, with three possible entries circled:The confirmatory signals are, in the first two instances a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, followed by a bullish engulfing pattern. The third entry is confirmed by a near perfect evening star.Now we come to the mechanics of entry, stop loss and take profit limits. It’s critical to understand that this is essentially a scalping forex trading strategy. The idea is to enter immediately the signal is confirmed at market, with an aggressively tight stop loss, and take profit at the opposite Bollinger band.Once the move is confirmed by price you should move the stop loss to breakeven as soon as possible. If you don’t do this you can be easily caught by price bouncing at the Bollinger mid-band and retracing to take out your stop. This would likely have happened in the first trade had you not immediately moved to breakeven once it was safe to do so.Of course, you will have to use your own judgement as to when exactly it is safe to move to breakeven: do it too early and you will be stopped out by normal retracements even if price is moving in the direction you wished!As a final note, this particular strategy is best traded in a very quiet market, with no fundamental news announcements etc imminent, on a pair that is not given to spiky price action. And it goes without saying that you should not enter trades based purely on the fact that price has reached an outer band. Look for a confluence at the outer band.
What with the volatility and indecision that has characterised many of the European trading sessions lately, I haven’t had much success finding good Bladerunner trades at the London open. I’ve been experimenting with a new strategy for these conditions based around the way price zigzags from one edge of a tight range to the other.At the moment this strategy is based on my favourite candlestick: The Rejection Bar or Hammer. I’m looking for rejection bars that form at resistance after price has moved out of a narrow range. I then sell or buy depending on the direction of the hammer, with a tight stop not far behind the tail of the hammer. I aim for a 2 to 1 profit/loss ratio, moving my stop to breakeven once price has moved in profit equal to the amount of risk I have in the trade.The chart below shows the entire day’s trading session here in Asia, beginning with the start of the week at the extreme left. Note the first hammer forming as the final candle of last week’s trading. Price gapped at the open in Asia this morning and mostly drifted sideways. The blue section towards the right of the chart indicates the open of the European session.When London opened, a hammer rejection formed almost immediately from the daily central pivot. Note also the succession of failures just to the left of that pivot. These failures occurred at a level where the weekend gap in price had been filled, adding conviction to my feeling that price may reverse from here.I tried to enter with a limit order two pips below the hammer candle, but mis-timed my entry slightly and ended up getting in three pips after the break below the hammer. You can see the tiny horizontal bar where my stop loss went in the white circle. I set a take profit limit at the weekly pivot indicated by the blue horizontal line, and was taken out for the full 2:1 profit quite quickly.The third circle indicates a possible entry on a bullish hammer after price had come down and formed a bottom, rejecting three times from a monthly pivot (the dashed line at the bottom of the chart). As a side note, it is interesting how often price will come down to one level of resistance – in this case the weekly pivot – and kind of “eat” through that to be finally stopped at a second level of resistance. I left this second opportunity alone, as I’m still testing and observing, rather than actively trading this new forex strategy.